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綜述:空客預測未來20年全球航空市場三大趨勢

來源: 南方日報網絡版     時間: 2019年05月27日 22:40:20
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(  新)(華)(網)(巴)(黎)(9月)(25日)(電)((記)(者)(韓)(冰)() 歐)(洲)(航)(空)(巨)(頭)(空)(中)(客)(車)(公)(司)(25日)(發)(布)(全)(球)(航)(空)(市)(場)(預)(測)(,認)(為)(未)(來)(20年)((2014-2033)全)(球)(航)(空)(市)(場)(將)(出)(現)(三)(大)(趨)(勢)(?! ∏?(勢)(一)(:客)(運)(量)(和)(新)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(量)(增)(勢)(喜)(人)(  空)(中)(客)(車)(認)(為)(,2014-2033年)(間)(全)(球)(航)(空)(客)(運)(量)(年)(平)(均)(增)(長)(將)(達)(到)(4.7%,100座)(以)(上)(的)(新)(客)(機)(和)(貨)(機)(需)(求)(將)(達)(31400架)(,總)(價)(值)(約)(4.6萬)(億)(美)(元)(?! 【?(空)(客)(介)(紹)(,目)(前)(全)(球)(在)(役)(客)(貨)(機)(數)(量)(為)(18500架)(,至)(2033年)(將)(增)(長)(至)(37500架)(,需)(新)(增)(飛)(機)(19000架)(。此)(外)(,約)(12400架)(低)(燃)(油)(效)(率)(的)(客)(貨)(飛)(機)(將)(要)(退)(役)(,由)(新)(飛)(機)(替)(代)(?! ∽?(料)(數)(據)(顯)(示)(,目)(前)(全)(球)(每)(年)(共)(計)(運)(營)(3200萬)(架)(次)(航)(班)(,運)(載)(30億)(人)(次)(乘)(客)(和)(5000萬)(噸)(貨)(物)(,全)(球)(航)(空)(業)(每)(年)(帶)(來)(的)(經)(濟)(貢)(獻)(約)(為)(2.4萬)(億)(美)(元)(?! ∏?(勢)(二)(:亞)(洲)(地)(區)(和)(城)(市)(化)(將)(成)(為)(兩)(大)(引)(擎)(  空)(中)(客)(車)(公)(司)(客)(戶)(事)(務)(首)(席)(運)(營)(官)(雷)(義)(說)(,未)(來)(20年)(,北)(美)(、歐)(洲)(等)(較)(成)(熟)(的)(航)(空)(市)(場)(持)(續)(增)(長)(的)(同)(時)(,亞)(洲)(航)(空)(業)(的)(增)(長)(將)(更)(引)(人)(注)(目)(?!拔?(來)(10年)(內)(,中)(國)(國)(內)(航)(空)(市)(場)(將)(成)(為)(全)(球)(最)(大)(的)(市)(場)(?!薄 【?(空)(客)(分)(析)(,至)(2033年)(全)(球)(中)(產)(階)(級)(占)(人)(口)(總)(比)(例)(將)(由)(33%增)(長)(至)(63%,而)(亞)(洲)(地)(區)(中)(產)(階)(級)(人)(口)(數)(量)(屆)(時)(將)(翻)(兩)(番)(,收)(入)(水)(平)(的)(整)(體)(提)(高)(將)(推)(動)(航)(空)(市)(場)(規)(模)(不)(斷)(擴)(大)(。據)(預)(測)(,印)(度)(的)(國)(內)(航)(空)(市)(場)(將)(迎)(來)(歷)(史)(增)(長)(最)(快)(時)(期)(,至)(2033年)(將)(成)(為)(全)(球)(10大)(市)(場)(之)(一)(?! 〈?(外)(,城)(市)(化)(也)(將)(是)(全)(球)(航)(空)(市)(場)(增)(長)(的)(一)(大)(重)(要)(引)(擎)(???(客)(認)(為)(,隨)(著)(城)(市)(化)(的)(增)(長)(和)(財)(富)(的)(集)(中)(,全)(球)(超)(大)(型)(航)(空)(城)(市)(的)(數)(量)(將)(翻)(一)(番)(達)(到)(91個)(。這)(些)(超)(大)(型)(城)(市)(在)(成)(為)(世)(界)(財)(富)(中)(心)(的)(同)(時)(,也)(將)(推)(動)(遠)(程)(航)(線)(運)(輸)(,全)(球)(遠)(程)(航)(空)(運)(輸)(量)(的)(95%將)(集)(中)(在)(這)(些)(超)(大)(型)(城)(市)(之)(間)(?! ∏?(勢)(三)(:寬)(體)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(增)(長)(將)(格)(外)(強)(勁)(  空)(客)(預)(計)(,未)(來)(20年)(全)(球)(新)(增)(寬)(體)(客)(貨)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(約)(9300架)(,總)(價)(值)(約)(2.5萬)(億)(美)(元)(,按)(飛)(機)(數)(量)(算)(,占)(同)(期)(新)(飛)(機)(總)(量)(的)(30%,按)(價)(值)(計)(算)(,占)(同)(期)(全)(部)(飛)(機)(總)(價)(值)(的)(55%?! ∑?(中)(,250-400座)(的)(雙)(通)(道)(寬)(體)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(約)(7800架)(,用)(于)(執)(飛)(最)(繁)(忙)(航)(線)(的)(400座)(以)(上)(超)(大)(型)(寬)(體)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(約)(1500架)(???(客)(預)(測)(稱)(,鑒)(于)(亞)(太)(地)(區)(增)(長)(速)(度)(超)(過)(平)(均)(水)(平)(以)(及)(人)(口)(高)(度)(集)(中)(,約)(50%的)(寬)(體)(客)(機)(將)(交)(付)(亞)(太)(地)(區)(運)(營)(商)(?! ±?(義)(說)(:“我)(們)(預)(測)(,空)(客)(A350XWB和)(A330neo等)(雙)(通)(道)(寬)(體)(飛)(機)(的)(需)(求)(增)(長)(將)(格)(外)(強)(勁)(。2017年)(至)(2022年)(之)(后)(新)(一)(代)(寬)(體)(飛)(機)(將)(供)(不)(應)(求)(,因)(此)(我)(們)(正)(在)(研)(究)(提)(高)(這)(兩)(款)(機)(型)(的)(產)(量)(?!薄 【?(了)(解)(,空)(客)(首)(架)(A350XWB寬)(體)(客)(機)(將)(于)(今)(年)(年)(底)(交)(付)(,首)(架)(A330neo將)(于)(2017年)(交)(付)(?! 〉?(通)(道)(飛)(機)(方)(面)(,空)(中)(客)(車)(預)(測)(,未)(來)(20年)(新)(增)(單)(通)(道)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(22000多)(架)(,總)(價)(值)(2.1萬)(億)(美)(元)(,占)(同)(期)(新)(飛)(機)(總)(需)(求)(量)(的)(70%,飛)(機)(總)(價)(值)(的)(45%?! 】?(客)(認)(為)(,歐)(洲)(及)(北)(美)(市)(場)(的)(單)(通)(道)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(將)(持)(續)(走)(高)(,分)(別)(占)(到)(單)(通)(道)(飛)(機)(總)(量)(的)(22%和)(21%。然)(而)(受)(中)(國)(和)(印)(度)(國)(內)(市)(場)(發)(展)(以)(及)(東)(南)(亞)(地)(區)(低)(成)(本)(航)(空)(發)(展)(的)(推)(動)(,亞)(洲)(地)(區)(單)(通)(道)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(量)(將)(遠)(超)(這)(兩)(個)(地)(區)(,亞)(太)(地)(區)(單)(通)(道)(飛)(機)(需)(求)(量)(將)(占)(37%?! ∽?(者)(:韓)(冰)(
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